A new on-chain and flow-based analysis highlights a subtle but important shift beneath Ethereum’s recent price weakness.
Data tracking ETH U.S. Spot ETF net flows, smoothed with a 30-day moving average, suggests that persistent selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion, even as price action remains subdued.
The chart, shared using data from Glassnode, shows Ethereum price (black line) moving largely sideways to lower over recent months, while ETF flows oscillate between outflows and stabilization. This divergence is critical. Historically, prolonged sell-side dominance tends to weaken when forced selling dries up, not when price suddenly rallies. That appears to be the phase Ethereum is entering now.
What the Chart Is Actually Showing
From early 2025, ETH spot ETF flows flipped deeply negative, shown by sustained red bars.
This coincided with Ethereum’s broader drawdown, as consistent ETF outflows added mechanical sell pressure to the market. However, the latest portion of the chart shows something different:
outflows are shrinking in magnitude, clustering closer to neutral instead of accelerating lower.
This matters because ETFs represent systematic demand and supply. When red bars stop expanding, it signals that sellers who needed to exit, whether for rebalancing, risk reduction, or macro reasons, are largely finished. Price can still drift, but the intensity of selling weakens.
At the same time, Ethereum’s price is no longer making aggressive lower lows. Instead, it is compressing into a broad consolidation range. That combination, fading ETF outflows + price compression, is a classic signature of seller exhaustion.
Why Seller Exhaustion Comes Before Price Reversal
Markets do not bottom when buyers suddenly rush in. They bottom when sellers run out.
The chart shows that ETH selling via ETFs has already gone through its most aggressive phase earlier in the year. What remains now is residual, lower-intensity distribution — not panic.
Importantly, this does not guarantee an immediate rally. Exhaustion phases often precede sideways price action, false breaks, and frustrating volatility. But structurally, they shift risk away from aggressive downside continuation and toward stabilization.
If ETF flows flip even modestly positive from here, the impact could be asymmetric. With fewer sellers left, relatively small inflows can have an outsized effect on price, especially given Ethereum’s reduced liquid supply compared to prior cycles.
The Bigger Picture for ETH
This setup reinforces a broader narrative forming across Ethereum markets. Selling pressure is no longer expanding. Long-term holders are not capitulating. ETF flows are stabilizing rather than accelerating lower. And price is coiling instead of collapsing.
In other words, Ethereum doesn’t look like an asset in freefall. It looks like one transitioning from distribution to balance, a phase where patience replaces fear, and where the next directional move depends less on sellers and more on whether demand decides to return.
That’s what seller exhaustion actually looks like.
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